Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Sun Oct 25?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 66° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 73° against the SFOC1 observations — fog.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.7°. ECMWF ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 67° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 72° | 74° | 77° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | — | 78° | 79° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–81° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | 62° | 71° | 68° | — | 68° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 72° | 74° | 71° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–74° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 66° | 65° | 74° | — | 75° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 62° | 67° | 66° | 66° | 64° | — | — | 62–67° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 61° | 59° | 69° | 66° | 75° | — | — | 59–75° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 71° | 75° | 68° | 62° | 75° | — | — | 62–75° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 71° | 70° | 73° | 63° | 75° | 64° | 64° | 63–75° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 71° | 70° | 75° | 67° | 74° | 67° | 68° | 67–75° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 68° | 68° | 68° | 66° | 73° | 71° | 74° | 66–74° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 68° | 69° | 65° | 67° | 72° | 64° | 68° | 64–72° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 68° | 68° | 67° | 66° | 71° | 62° | 69° | 62–71° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 67° | 68° | 65° | 67° | 70° | 66° | 68° | 65–70° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.