Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Tue Oct 20?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Tue Oct 20 high anywhere from 64° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 67° against the SFOC1 observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-05 | — | 78° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 78–80° |
| 14d · 2026-10-06 | 63° | 75° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 63–75° |
| 13d · 2026-10-07 | 72° | 64° | 81° | — | 77° | — | — | 64–81° |
| 12d · 2026-10-08 | 65° | 84° | 72° | — | 75° | — | — | 65–84° |
| 11d · 2026-10-09 | 70° | 74° | 66° | — | 67° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 10d · 2026-10-10 | 65° | 70° | 64° | — | 71° | — | — | 64–71° |
| 9d · 2026-10-11 | 68° | 75° | 62° | 64° | 63° | — | — | 62–75° |
| 8d · 2026-10-12 | — | 64° | 62° | 66° | 59° | — | — | 59–66° |
| 7d · 2026-10-13 | 70° | 62° | 62° | 60° | 68° | — | — | 60–70° |
| 6d · 2026-10-14 | 61° | 62° | 75° | 62° | 60° | 64° | 69° | 60–75° |
| 5d · 2026-10-15 | 64° | 62° | 66° | 66° | 64° | 64° | 65° | 62–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-16 | 64° | 64° | 62° | 61° | 66° | 59° | 68° | 59–68° |
| 3d · 2026-10-17 | 65° | 63° | 63° | 65° | 63° | 64° | 66° | 63–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-18 | 66° | 63° | 65° | 63° | 66° | 65° | 67° | 63–67° |
| 1d · 2026-10-19 | 66° | 64° | 65° | 63° | 68° | 67° | 67° | 63–68° |
| actual | 67° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.