Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Sat Oct 17?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 63° to 69°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 85° against the SFOC1 observations — clear.
UKMO landed closest, off by 2.4°. AIFS ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 73° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 63° | 68° | 69° | — | 65° | — | — | 63–69° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 77° | 78° | 81° | — | 83° | — | — | 77–83° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 84° | 77° | 79° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 85° | 79° | 65° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–85° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 72° | 76° | 71° | — | 78° | — | — | 71–78° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 84° | 74° | 79° | 70° | 79° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 74° | 75° | 68° | 72° | 75° | — | — | 68–75° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 73° | 90° | 66° | 73° | 84° | — | — | 66–90° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 69° | 85° | 73° | 67° | 82° | 72° | 71° | 67–85° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 81° | 73° | 70° | 79° | 71° | 79° | 70–81° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 77° | 81° | 74° | 73° | 73° | 72° | 84° | 72–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 77° | 81° | 80° | 74° | 77° | 76° | 86° | 74–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 76° | 82° | 80° | 74° | 78° | 81° | 83° | 74–83° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 76° | 81° | 81° | 78° | 81° | 79° | 83° | 76–83° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.