Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Fri Oct 16?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 72° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 87° against the SFOC1 observations — clear.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. GEM ran 12° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 62° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 62–78° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 72° | 74° | 81° | — | 91° | — | — | 72–91° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 63° | 72° | 68° | — | 85° | — | — | 63–85° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 76° | 66° | 82° | — | 84° | — | — | 66–84° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 82° | 68° | 68° | — | 75° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 83° | 78° | 63° | — | 70° | — | — | 63–83° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 69° | 76° | 67° | 75° | 76° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 83° | 73° | 80° | 76° | 77° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 79° | 80° | 69° | 74° | 75° | — | — | 69–80° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 81° | 85° | 67° | 74° | 83° | 82° | 73° | 67–85° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 79° | 89° | 79° | 72° | 86° | 71° | 78° | 71–89° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 87° | 83° | 74° | 85° | 84° | 82° | 74–87° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 82° | 86° | 82° | 73° | 84° | 84° | 86° | 73–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 82° | 86° | 86° | 75° | 85° | 87° | 85° | 75–87° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 82° | 86° | 85° | 74° | 85° | 85° | 85° | 74–86° |
| actual | 87° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.