Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Thu Oct 15?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 63° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 83° against the SFOC1 observations — fog.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 73° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 73–76° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 63° | 66° | 71° | — | 79° | — | — | 63–79° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 68° | 69° | 72° | — | 89° | — | — | 68–89° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 66° | 65° | 66° | — | 87° | — | — | 65–87° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 70° | 64° | 68° | — | 80° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 79° | 67° | 65° | — | 75° | — | — | 65–79° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 80° | 82° | 65° | — | 72° | — | — | 65–82° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 69° | 75° | 66° | 73° | 74° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 80° | 73° | 72° | 73° | 74° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 78° | 79° | 67° | 71° | 77° | 77° | 71° | 67–79° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 80° | 81° | 75° | 72° | 79° | 81° | 81° | 72–81° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 78° | 85° | 79° | 70° | 81° | 69° | 80° | 69–85° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 84° | 82° | 72° | 82° | 79° | 81° | 72–84° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 80° | 84° | 79° | 72° | 81° | 79° | 83° | 72–84° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 80° | 84° | 82° | 76° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 76–84° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.