Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Mon Oct 12?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 60° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 66° against the SFOC1 observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 86° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 69° | 78° | 64° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–78° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 71° | 80° | 70° | — | 72° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 66° | 64° | 62° | — | 73° | — | — | 62–73° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 68° | 66° | 63° | — | 85° | — | — | 63–85° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 62° | 61° | 66° | — | 78° | — | — | 61–78° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 62° | 66° | 62° | 65° | 74° | — | — | 62–74° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 66° | 62° | 67° | 62° | 70° | — | — | 62–70° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 74° | 67° | 63° | 64° | 68° | — | — | 63–74° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 66° | 73° | 64° | 66° | 76° | 63° | — | 63–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 68° | 68° | 70° | 68° | 71° | 68° | 69° | 68–71° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 68° | 71° | 67° | 63° | 66° | 70° | 66° | 63–71° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 66° | 70° | 66° | 64° | 67° | 65° | 67° | 64–70° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 66° | 69° | 66° | 64° | 66° | 68° | 68° | 64–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 65° | 67° | 66° | 63° | 66° | 67° | 67° | 63–67° |
| actual | 66° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.