Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Sun Oct 11?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Sun Oct 11 high anywhere from 69° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 64°. The day verified at 63° against the SFOC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-26 | — | 79° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 14d · 2026-09-27 | 70° | 92° | 69° | — | 76° | — | — | 69–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-28 | 81° | 79° | 67° | — | 68° | — | — | 67–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-29 | 74° | 82° | 79° | — | 78° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 11d · 2026-09-30 | 64° | 63° | 61° | — | 73° | — | — | 61–73° |
| 10d · 2026-10-01 | 63° | 63° | 65° | — | 73° | — | — | 63–73° |
| 9d · 2026-10-02 | 62° | 59° | 70° | 78° | 78° | — | — | 59–78° |
| 8d · 2026-10-03 | 62° | 62° | 72° | 60° | 79° | — | — | 60–79° |
| 7d · 2026-10-04 | 64° | 64° | 67° | 63° | 62° | — | — | 62–67° |
| 6d · 2026-10-05 | 66° | 64° | 63° | 64° | 64° | 63° | 62° | 62–66° |
| 5d · 2026-10-06 | 68° | 64° | 64° | 64° | 68° | 60° | 64° | 60–68° |
| 4d · 2026-10-07 | 65° | 66° | 63° | 64° | 68° | 64° | 67° | 63–68° |
| 3d · 2026-10-08 | 64° | 64° | 62° | 61° | 61° | 65° | 63° | 61–65° |
| 2d · 2026-10-09 | 64° | 64° | 63° | 61° | 64° | 63° | 66° | 61–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-10 | 64° | 64° | 63° | 61° | 64° | 62° | 65° | 61–65° |
| actual | 63° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.