Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Fri Oct 9?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 72° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 64° against the SFOC1 observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. GFS ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-24 | — | 67° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 67–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-25 | 74° | 88° | 72° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–88° |
| 13d · 2026-09-26 | 80° | 70° | 70° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-27 | 86° | 72° | 72° | — | 68° | — | — | 68–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-28 | 90° | 88° | 68° | — | 77° | — | — | 68–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-29 | 80° | 84° | 67° | — | 83° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-30 | 70° | 66° | 63° | 81° | 70° | — | — | 63–81° |
| 8d · 2026-10-01 | 64° | 66° | 63° | 69° | 73° | — | — | 63–73° |
| 7d · 2026-10-02 | 67° | 65° | 62° | 76° | 75° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 6d · 2026-10-03 | 63° | 70° | 65° | 69° | 77° | 72° | 64° | 63–77° |
| 5d · 2026-10-04 | 68° | 72° | 68° | 68° | 83° | 62° | 64° | 62–83° |
| 4d · 2026-10-05 | 66° | 70° | 67° | 64° | 77° | 63° | 64° | 63–77° |
| 3d · 2026-10-06 | 67° | 70° | 67° | 63° | 76° | 62° | 63° | 62–76° |
| 2d · 2026-10-07 | 65° | 69° | 68° | 66° | 72° | 63° | 64° | 63–72° |
| 1d · 2026-10-08 | 65° | 70° | 68° | 66° | 71° | 62° | 61° | 61–71° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.