Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Thu Oct 8?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Thu Oct 8 high anywhere from 66° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 76° against the SFOC1 observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. ICON ran 15° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-23 | — | 96° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 14d · 2026-09-24 | 67° | 66° | 78° | — | 92° | — | — | 66–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-25 | 78° | 92° | 70° | — | 77° | — | — | 70–92° |
| 12d · 2026-09-26 | 81° | 73° | 66° | — | 71° | — | — | 66–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-27 | 89° | 68° | 74° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-28 | 83° | 92° | 68° | — | 86° | — | — | 68–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-29 | 86° | 88° | 68° | 71° | 82° | — | — | 68–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-30 | 81° | 79° | 71° | 68° | 77° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 7d · 2026-10-01 | 76° | 76° | 66° | 69° | 87° | — | — | 66–87° |
| 6d · 2026-10-02 | 77° | 83° | 65° | 71° | 79° | 77° | 69° | 65–83° |
| 5d · 2026-10-03 | 74° | 83° | 76° | 67° | 79° | 68° | 74° | 67–83° |
| 4d · 2026-10-04 | 75° | 76° | 72° | 67° | 79° | 60° | 68° | 60–79° |
| 3d · 2026-10-05 | 77° | 75° | 73° | 67° | 76° | 61° | 71° | 61–77° |
| 2d · 2026-10-06 | 79° | 75° | 73° | 67° | 75° | 63° | 74° | 63–79° |
| 1d · 2026-10-07 | 74° | 81° | 72° | 70° | 76° | 61° | 73° | 61–81° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.