Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Wed Oct 7?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Wed Oct 7 high anywhere from 67° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 71° against the SFOC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.7°. AIGFS ran 12° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-22 | — | 73° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–73° |
| 14d · 2026-09-23 | 88° | 89° | 67° | — | 69° | — | — | 67–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-24 | 77° | 70° | 82° | — | 87° | — | — | 70–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-25 | 84° | 94° | 63° | — | 84° | — | — | 63–94° |
| 11d · 2026-09-26 | 79° | 81° | 68° | — | 74° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 10d · 2026-09-27 | 83° | 74° | 72° | — | 73° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-28 | 77° | 92° | 67° | 70° | 88° | — | — | 67–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-29 | 85° | 82° | 65° | 71° | 84° | — | — | 65–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-30 | 82° | 87° | 74° | 67° | 83° | — | — | 67–87° |
| 6d · 2026-10-01 | 77° | 84° | 68° | 76° | 82° | 73° | 64° | 64–84° |
| 5d · 2026-10-02 | 76° | 91° | 71° | 72° | 85° | 78° | 74° | 71–91° |
| 4d · 2026-10-03 | 78° | 84° | 74° | 74° | 80° | 71° | 84° | 71–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-04 | 78° | 83° | 71° | 71° | 79° | 67° | 76° | 67–83° |
| 2d · 2026-10-05 | 78° | 82° | 71° | 74° | 77° | 69° | 73° | 69–82° |
| 1d · 2026-10-06 | 79° | 83° | 73° | 73° | 77° | 68° | 77° | 68–83° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.