Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Tue Oct 6?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 65° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 72° against the SFOC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 14° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 74° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 89° | 85° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 81° | 76° | 74° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 77° | 86° | 91° | — | 92° | — | — | 77–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 77° | 89° | 64° | — | 86° | — | — | 64–89° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 72° | 71° | 66° | — | 81° | — | — | 66–81° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 77° | 82° | 68° | 72° | 78° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 74° | 88° | 69° | 70° | 93° | — | — | 69–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 80° | 79° | 64° | 67° | 88° | — | — | 64–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 80° | 86° | 72° | 66° | 81° | 82° | 72° | 66–86° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 76° | 84° | 71° | 78° | 79° | 79° | 82° | 71–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 77° | 88° | 76° | 73° | 87° | 71° | 79° | 71–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 79° | 86° | 78° | 78° | 82° | 76° | 86° | 76–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 79° | 85° | 78° | 78° | 81° | 73° | 79° | 73–85° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 78° | 86° | 76° | 76° | 82° | 72° | 76° | 72–86° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.