Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Fri Oct 2?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 65° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 76° against the SFOC1 observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ICON ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 70° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 70–75° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 90° | 65° | — | 79° | — | — | 65–90° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 68° | 84° | — | 74° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 76° | 74° | 67° | — | 69° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 66° | 66° | 69° | — | 87° | — | — | 66–87° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 73° | 83° | 67° | — | 74° | — | — | 67–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 69° | 69° | 68° | 73° | 71° | — | — | 68–73° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 70° | 73° | 67° | 67° | 74° | — | — | 67–74° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 72° | 67° | 64° | 66° | 66° | — | — | 64–72° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 72° | 82° | 62° | 69° | 70° | 65° | 62° | 62–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 77° | 85° | 65° | 68° | 78° | 78° | 75° | 65–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 75° | 79° | 74° | 73° | 81° | 64° | 76° | 64–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 76° | 78° | 71° | 76° | 80° | 75° | 78° | 71–80° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 77° | 79° | 74° | 78° | 77° | 68° | 76° | 68–79° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 76° | 81° | 72° | 73° | 79° | 68° | 78° | 68–81° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.