Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Thu Oct 1?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 67° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 68° against the SFOC1 observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 80° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 68° | 71° | 70° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–71° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 68° | 75° | 66° | — | 70° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 71° | 69° | 67° | — | 85° | — | — | 67–85° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 63° | 65° | 67° | — | 67° | — | — | 63–67° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 75° | 75° | 65° | — | 69° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 66° | 73° | 62° | 62° | 68° | — | — | 62–73° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 67° | 78° | 69° | 68° | 76° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 68° | 65° | 67° | 66° | 70° | — | — | 65–70° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 71° | 66° | 61° | 68° | 67° | 63° | 62° | 61–71° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 66° | 80° | 68° | 68° | 67° | 68° | 72° | 66–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 73° | 81° | 70° | 75° | 78° | 76° | 79° | 70–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 73° | 78° | 70° | 75° | 78° | 66° | 67° | 66–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 74° | 76° | 70° | 72° | 78° | 67° | 70° | 67–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 73° | 76° | 69° | 71° | 76° | 66° | 68° | 66–76° |
| actual | 68° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.