Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Wed Sep 23?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 70° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 75° against the SFOC1 observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.5°. ICON ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 82° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 71–82° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 70° | 71° | 76° | — | 84° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 77° | 80° | 66° | — | 74° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 68° | 70° | 66° | — | 73° | — | — | 66–73° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 62° | 64° | — | 74° | — | — | 62–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 70° | 73° | 66° | — | 75° | — | — | 66–75° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 69° | 84° | 65° | 66° | 79° | — | — | 65–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 69° | 91° | 66° | 81° | 93° | — | — | 66–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 70° | 78° | 67° | 73° | 77° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 72° | 85° | 67° | 72° | 80° | 66° | 78° | 66–85° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 71° | 82° | 74° | 71° | 79° | 66° | 77° | 66–82° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 75° | 75° | 77° | 71° | 73° | 68° | 79° | 68–79° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 77° | 77° | 75° | 71° | 73° | 70° | 76° | 70–77° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 78° | 78° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 74° | 78° | 72–78° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 76° | 80° | 72° | 72° | 74° | 69° | 78° | 69–80° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.