Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Tue Sep 22?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 66° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 63° against the SFOC1 observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 64° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 64–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 76° | 72° | 66° | — | 72° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 72° | 83° | 74° | — | 81° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 74° | 88° | 66° | — | 78° | — | — | 66–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 76° | 70° | 64° | — | 69° | — | — | 64–76° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 79° | 67° | 64° | — | 70° | — | — | 64–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 69° | 75° | 62° | 64° | 79° | — | — | 62–79° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 72° | 76° | 67° | 66° | 79° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 66° | 88° | 63° | 74° | 78° | — | — | 63–88° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 66° | 69° | 64° | 65° | 73° | 63° | 72° | 63–73° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 66° | 71° | 65° | 69° | 73° | 65° | 67° | 65–73° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 65° | 70° | 66° | 64° | 74° | 63° | 66° | 63–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 67° | 69° | 64° | 64° | 70° | 63° | 60° | 60–70° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 68° | 68° | 66° | 65° | 71° | 63° | 62° | 62–71° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 67° | 66° | 65° | 64° | 69° | 63° | 66° | 63–69° |
| actual | 63° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.