Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Wed Sep 9?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 62° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 94° against the SFOC1 observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 12° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 72° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–72° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 68° | 62° | 76° | — | 66° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 72° | 67° | 64° | — | 65° | — | — | 64–72° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 81° | 77° | 65° | — | 76° | — | — | 65–81° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 74° | 75° | 72° | — | 82° | — | — | 72–82° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 66° | 78° | 75° | — | 85° | — | — | 66–85° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 72° | 83° | 63° | 71° | 78° | — | — | 63–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 65° | 76° | 66° | 68° | 78° | — | — | 65–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 70° | 68° | 64° | 68° | 65° | — | — | 64–70° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 84° | 89° | 64° | 67° | 68° | 66° | 67° | 64–89° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 91° | 93° | 69° | 62° | 70° | 64° | 71° | 62–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 91° | 95° | 79° | 81° | 87° | 81° | 88° | 79–95° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 91° | 94° | 82° | 80° | 90° | 78° | 81° | 78–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 88° | 92° | 85° | 82° | 89° | 87° | 96° | 82–96° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 94° | 86° | 82° | 90° | 85° | 92° | 82–94° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.