Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Tue Sep 8?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 65° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 85° against the SFOC1 observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-24 | — | 68° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 65° | 70° | 66° | — | 71° | — | — | 65–71° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 67° | 64° | 75° | — | 70° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 68° | 67° | 65° | — | 75° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 77° | 82° | 68° | — | 76° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 67° | 71° | 82° | — | 90° | — | — | 67–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 67° | 77° | 77° | 66° | 80° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 75° | 83° | 65° | 65° | 86° | — | — | 65–86° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 70° | 82° | 74° | 67° | 81° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 72° | 74° | 67° | 65° | 66° | 69° | 70° | 65–74° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 78° | 79° | 69° | 70° | 67° | 65° | 76° | 65–79° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 84° | 80° | 75° | 71° | 71° | 65° | 78° | 65–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 84° | 84° | 75° | 74° | 81° | 80° | 81° | 74–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 85° | 77° | 74° | 82° | 72° | 80° | 72–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 85° | 86° | 81° | 79° | 84° | 75° | 90° | 75–90° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.