Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Tue Sep 1?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
10 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 65° to 72°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 69° against the SFOC1 observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 66° | 72° | 65° | — | 67° | — | — | 65–72° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 64° | 63° | 67° | 66° | 71° | — | — | 63–71° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 65° | 68° | 61° | 63° | 67° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 65° | 67° | 61° | 63° | 68° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 65° | 64° | 64° | 64° | 71° | 66° | 64° | 64–71° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 65° | 68° | 65° | 63° | 69° | 66° | 67° | 63–69° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 66° | 67° | 65° | 64° | 68° | 65° | 66° | 64–68° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 66° | 67° | 64° | 63° | 69° | 66° | 67° | 63–69° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 66° | 68° | 66° | 65° | 67° | 65° | 67° | 65–68° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 66° | 67° | 65° | 65° | 68° | 66° | 68° | 65–68° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.