Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Thu Aug 27?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SFOC1 observations
5 days out, 7 models put San Francisco's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 67° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 70° against the SFOC1 observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIGFS ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 70° | 80° | 67° | 68° | 70° | 72° | 74° | 67–80° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 74° | 80° | 68° | 70° | 70° | 63° | 82° | 63–82° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 75° | 75° | 73° | 70° | 72° | 72° | 76° | 70–76° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 75° | 79° | 72° | 70° | 72° | 70° | 69° | 69–79° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 73° | 78° | 69° | 68° | 72° | 68° | 76° | 68–78° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SFOC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.