Was the forecast right for San Francisco on Thu Aug 6?
San Francisco, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
11 days out, 4 models put San Francisco's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 66° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 67°. The day verified at 65° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 11° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Francisco scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-07-26 | 70° | 83° | 66° | — | 78° | — | — | 66–83° |
| 10d · 2026-07-27 | 71° | 68° | 69° | — | 80° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 9d · 2026-07-28 | 72° | 77° | 64° | 66° | 82° | — | — | 64–82° |
| 8d · 2026-07-29 | 69° | 76° | 66° | 66° | 77° | — | — | 66–77° |
| 7d · 2026-07-30 | 69° | 74° | 68° | 67° | 78° | — | — | 67–78° |
| 6d · 2026-07-31 | 69° | 72° | 65° | 70° | 70° | 65° | 62° | 62–72° |
| 5d · 2026-08-01 | 69° | 75° | 68° | 68° | 77° | 66° | 68° | 66–77° |
| 4d · 2026-08-02 | 69° | 76° | 66° | 68° | 76° | 64° | 68° | 64–76° |
| 3d · 2026-08-03 | 69° | 76° | 67° | 68° | 75° | 63° | 69° | 63–76° |
| 2d · 2026-08-04 | 70° | 75° | 68° | 67° | 76° | 64° | 68° | 64–76° |
| 1d · 2026-08-05 | 71° | 76° | 67° | 67° | 66° | 65° | 66° | 65–76° |
| actual | 65° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Francisco — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.