Was the forecast right for San Diego on Wed Oct 21?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Wed Oct 21 high anywhere from 70° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 77° against the SAN observations, with 0.23 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-06 | — | 95° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 85–95° |
| 14d · 2026-10-07 | 81° | 70° | 89° | — | 80° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 13d · 2026-10-08 | 75° | 92° | 90° | — | 78° | — | — | 75–92° |
| 12d · 2026-10-09 | 81° | 90° | 81° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 11d · 2026-10-10 | 70° | 84° | 75° | — | 80° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 10d · 2026-10-11 | 71° | 73° | 72° | — | 82° | — | — | 71–82° |
| 9d · 2026-10-12 | — | 71° | 70° | 80° | 68° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 8d · 2026-10-13 | 68° | 68° | 68° | 69° | 75° | — | — | 68–75° |
| 7d · 2026-10-14 | 65° | 66° | 85° | 71° | 66° | — | — | 65–85° |
| 6d · 2026-10-15 | 70° | 65° | 75° | 67° | 68° | 66° | 66° | 65–75° |
| 5d · 2026-10-16 | 72° | 71° | 76° | 74° | 69° | 75° | 74° | 69–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-17 | 78° | 74° | 79° | 77° | 74° | 78° | 77° | 74–79° |
| 3d · 2026-10-18 | 79° | 76° | 77° | 75° | 73° | 76° | 77° | 73–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-19 | 78° | 77° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 76° | 81° | 75–81° |
| 1d · 2026-10-20 | 79° | 78° | 84° | 76° | 75° | 76° | 77° | 75–84° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.