Was the forecast right for San Diego on Fri Oct 16?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 78° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 96° against the SAN observations — partly cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 71° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 78° | 80° | 87° | — | 93° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 72° | 79° | — | 81° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 84° | 71° | 88° | — | 82° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 94° | 75° | 90° | — | 81° | — | — | 75–94° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 92° | 98° | 80° | — | 85° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 73° | 83° | 89° | 91° | 82° | — | — | 73–91° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 78° | 78° | 94° | 80° | 84° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 89° | 78° | 86° | 90° | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 90° | 96° | 84° | 89° | 93° | 96° | 90° | 84–96° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 86° | 96° | 90° | 89° | 91° | 89° | 88° | 86–96° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 96° | 89° | 88° | 89° | 92° | 90° | 88–96° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 90° | 96° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 93° | 91° | 90–96° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 90° | 95° | 92° | 94° | 89° | 94° | 93° | 89–95° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 90° | 96° | 93° | 94° | 91° | 94° | 92° | 90–96° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.