Was the forecast right for San Diego on Mon Oct 12?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 75° to 100°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 71° against the SAN observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | — | 73° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 70–73° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 88° | 79° | 100° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–100° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 85° | 96° | 89° | — | 86° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 77° | 66° | 75° | — | 79° | — | — | 66–79° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 79° | 85° | 79° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–85° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 66° | 82° | 73° | — | 76° | — | — | 66–82° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 67° | 86° | 74° | 73° | 75° | — | — | 67–86° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 67° | 73° | 76° | 76° | 73° | — | — | 67–76° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 71° | 72° | 70° | 72° | 71° | — | — | 70–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 69° | 68° | 74° | 67° | 74° | 69° | 67–74° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 72° | 70° | 71° | 72° | 70° | 71° | 76° | 70–76° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 70° | 64° | 70° | 66° | 69° | 67° | 66° | 64–70° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 67° | 65° | 68° | 66° | 67° | 71° | 67° | 65–71° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 67° | 65° | 68° | 65° | 67° | 69° | 68° | 65–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 68° | 67° | 69° | 68° | 68° | 71° | 69° | 67–71° |
| actual | 71° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.