Was the forecast right for San Diego on Sat Oct 10?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Sat Oct 10 high anywhere from 77° to 95°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 78° against the SAN observations, with 0.73 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. ECMWF ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-25 | — | 96° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 14d · 2026-09-26 | 85° | 77° | 82° | — | 95° | — | — | 77–95° |
| 13d · 2026-09-27 | 102° | 81° | 102° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–102° |
| 12d · 2026-09-28 | 98° | 91° | 103° | — | 101° | — | — | 91–103° |
| 11d · 2026-09-29 | 94° | 103° | 101° | — | 98° | — | — | 94–103° |
| 10d · 2026-09-30 | 78° | 74° | 82° | — | 81° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 9d · 2026-10-01 | 79° | 78° | 87° | 96° | 85° | — | — | 78–96° |
| 8d · 2026-10-02 | 77° | 80° | 82° | 96° | 81° | — | — | 77–96° |
| 7d · 2026-10-03 | 74° | 79° | 89° | 89° | 80° | — | — | 74–89° |
| 6d · 2026-10-04 | 78° | 78° | 93° | 78° | 85° | 78° | 79° | 78–93° |
| 5d · 2026-10-05 | 79° | 80° | 81° | 79° | 81° | 85° | 88° | 79–88° |
| 4d · 2026-10-06 | 79° | 78° | 85° | 79° | 80° | 77° | 79° | 77–85° |
| 3d · 2026-10-07 | 79° | 81° | 80° | 76° | 80° | 81° | 76° | 76–81° |
| 2d · 2026-10-08 | 79° | 82° | 83° | 78° | 79° | 80° | 76° | 76–83° |
| 1d · 2026-10-09 | 80° | 81° | 85° | 81° | 81° | 78° | 81° | 78–85° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.