Was the forecast right for San Diego on Fri Oct 9?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Fri Oct 9 high anywhere from 83° to 103°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 80° against the SAN observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 2.2°. ECMWF ran 9° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-24 | — | 74° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-25 | 99° | 103° | 85° | — | 83° | — | — | 83–103° |
| 13d · 2026-09-26 | 88° | 78° | 88° | — | 100° | — | — | 78–100° |
| 12d · 2026-09-27 | 102° | 79° | 107° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–107° |
| 11d · 2026-09-28 | 102° | 103° | 107° | — | 96° | — | — | 96–107° |
| 10d · 2026-09-29 | 102° | 104° | 109° | — | 100° | — | — | 100–109° |
| 9d · 2026-09-30 | 88° | 96° | 94° | 97° | 96° | — | — | 88–97° |
| 8d · 2026-10-01 | 84° | 87° | 96° | 98° | 96° | — | — | 84–98° |
| 7d · 2026-10-02 | 82° | 86° | 91° | 98° | 81° | — | — | 81–98° |
| 6d · 2026-10-03 | 80° | 83° | 88° | 96° | 86° | 93° | 91° | 80–96° |
| 5d · 2026-10-04 | 84° | 84° | 97° | 86° | 84° | 85° | 84° | 84–97° |
| 4d · 2026-10-05 | 84° | 82° | 94° | 84° | 84° | 81° | 88° | 81–94° |
| 3d · 2026-10-06 | 84° | 84° | 89° | 81° | 82° | 81° | 85° | 81–89° |
| 2d · 2026-10-07 | 83° | 85° | 89° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 86° | 82–89° |
| 1d · 2026-10-08 | 83° | 85° | 89° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 86° | 82–89° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.