Was the forecast right for San Diego on Thu Oct 8?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Thu Oct 8 high anywhere from 82° to 108°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 83° against the SAN observations — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.5°. ECMWF ran 11° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-23 | — | 100° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 92–100° |
| 14d · 2026-09-24 | 93° | 83° | 108° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–108° |
| 13d · 2026-09-25 | 95° | 101° | 80° | — | 85° | — | — | 80–101° |
| 12d · 2026-09-26 | 91° | 84° | 98° | — | 92° | — | — | 84–98° |
| 11d · 2026-09-27 | 97° | 89° | 101° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–101° |
| 10d · 2026-09-28 | 101° | 104° | 104° | — | 89° | — | — | 89–104° |
| 9d · 2026-09-29 | 103° | 91° | 99° | 98° | 97° | — | — | 91–103° |
| 8d · 2026-09-30 | 93° | 107° | 99° | 98° | 101° | — | — | 93–107° |
| 7d · 2026-10-01 | 88° | 92° | 98° | 100° | 86° | — | — | 86–100° |
| 6d · 2026-10-02 | 85° | 93° | 96° | 90° | 85° | 90° | 88° | 85–96° |
| 5d · 2026-10-03 | 85° | 87° | 95° | 86° | 86° | 88° | 93° | 85–95° |
| 4d · 2026-10-04 | 88° | 87° | 97° | 87° | 86° | 89° | 87° | 86–97° |
| 3d · 2026-10-05 | 88° | 86° | 96° | 86° | 85° | 87° | 92° | 85–96° |
| 2d · 2026-10-06 | 88° | 88° | 95° | 84° | 87° | 88° | 92° | 84–95° |
| 1d · 2026-10-07 | 87° | 88° | 94° | 84° | 86° | 86° | 92° | 84–94° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.