Was the forecast right for San Diego on Mon Oct 5?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 82° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 98°. The day verified at 97° against the SAN observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 77° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 82° | 82° | 99° | — | 94° | — | — | 82–99° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 94° | 100° | — | 100° | — | — | 82–100° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 85° | 83° | 85° | — | 86° | — | — | 83–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 84° | 97° | 91° | — | 99° | — | — | 84–99° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 86° | 95° | 84° | — | 87° | — | — | 84–95° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 92° | 90° | 94° | 80° | 87° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 96° | 106° | 86° | 93° | 97° | — | — | 86–106° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 95° | 99° | 104° | 100° | 93° | — | — | 93–104° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 93° | 90° | 100° | 96° | 89° | 102° | 96° | 89–102° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 95° | 96° | 102° | 94° | 92° | 98° | 98° | 92–102° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 96° | 98° | 104° | 93° | 93° | 97° | 99° | 93–104° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 96° | 102° | 104° | 94° | 94° | 97° | 102° | 94–104° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 98° | 101° | 104° | 95° | 93° | 97° | 103° | 93–104° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 98° | 99° | 104° | 94° | 94° | 98° | 101° | 94–104° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.