Was the forecast right for San Diego on Sun Oct 4?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 76° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 98°. The day verified at 100° against the SAN observations — clear.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 78° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 78–82° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 97° | 76° | 81° | — | 86° | — | — | 76–97° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 81° | 80° | 98° | — | 94° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 83° | 97° | 99° | — | 92° | — | — | 83–99° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 83° | 84° | 92° | — | 85° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 81° | 93° | 91° | — | 84° | — | — | 81–93° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 86° | 94° | 87° | 82° | 87° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 91° | 92° | 92° | 85° | 86° | — | — | 85–92° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 93° | 104° | 88° | 92° | 93° | — | — | 88–104° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 92° | 104° | 103° | 96° | 96° | 102° | 97° | 92–104° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 93° | 97° | 102° | 96° | 97° | 105° | 99° | 93–105° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 96° | 101° | 102° | 95° | 91° | 101° | 97° | 91–102° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 96° | 103° | 104° | 100° | 92° | 103° | 100° | 92–104° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 96° | 103° | 103° | 98° | 98° | 98° | 102° | 96–103° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 98° | 102° | 104° | 96° | 91° | 96° | 100° | 91–104° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.