Was the forecast right for San Diego on Fri Oct 2?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 78° to 108°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 99°. The day verified at 95° against the SAN observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.7°. ECMWF ran 11° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 80° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 85° | 108° | 81° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–108° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 88° | 83° | 97° | — | 91° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 82° | 80° | 88° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 90° | 86° | 86° | — | 86° | — | — | 86–90° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 88° | 84° | 79° | — | 82° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 81° | 84° | 91° | 87° | 78° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 82° | 80° | 80° | 82° | 72° | — | — | 72–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 90° | 82° | 84° | 80° | 72° | — | — | 72–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 90° | 91° | 86° | 86° | 82° | 81° | 95° | 81–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 87° | 104° | 95° | 88° | 97° | 103° | 92° | 87–104° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 88° | 92° | 95° | 84° | 89° | 89° | 88° | 84–95° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 92° | 100° | 99° | 88° | 88° | 91° | 94° | 88–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 96° | 103° | 106° | 92° | 91° | 102° | 98° | 91–106° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 93° | 103° | 106° | 92° | 92° | 99° | 101° | 92–106° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.