Was the forecast right for San Diego on Wed Sep 30?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Wed Sep 30 high anywhere from 78° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 77° against the SAN observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 10° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-15 | — | 78° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-16 | 79° | 80° | 79° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-17 | 77° | 71° | 78° | — | 80° | — | — | 71–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 85° | 86° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-19 | 94° | 90° | 98° | — | 90° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 10d · 2026-09-20 | 74° | 72° | 92° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-21 | 92° | 99° | 85° | 83° | 88° | — | — | 83–99° |
| 8d · 2026-09-22 | 92° | 96° | 82° | 84° | 76° | — | — | 76–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-23 | 80° | 89° | 98° | 94° | 79° | — | — | 79–98° |
| 6d · 2026-09-24 | 77° | 79° | 91° | 86° | 76° | 79° | 81° | 76–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-25 | 86° | 80° | 81° | 87° | 78° | 78° | 79° | 78–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-26 | 79° | 81° | 86° | 86° | 76° | 84° | 86° | 76–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-27 | 79° | 81° | 88° | 82° | 75° | 83° | 83° | 75–88° |
| 2d · 2026-09-28 | 80° | 81° | 85° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 80° | 75–85° |
| 1d · 2026-09-29 | 80° | 81° | 87° | 78° | 76° | 77° | 79° | 76–87° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.