Was the forecast right for San Diego on Mon Sep 28?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 71° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 78° against the SAN observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 89° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 91° | 73° | 86° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–91° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 82° | 86° | 84° | — | 84° | — | — | 82–86° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 76° | 79° | 84° | — | 77° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 79° | 81° | 82° | — | 85° | — | — | 79–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 88° | 95° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 80° | 92° | 77° | 77° | — | — | 77–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 80° | 84° | 85° | 78° | 82° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 84° | 77° | 84° | 81° | 79° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 82° | 78° | 82° | 79° | 76° | 82° | — | 76–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 73° | 78° | 83° | 80° | 80° | 76° | 83° | 73–83° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 76° | 78° | 82° | 78° | 74° | 83° | 80° | 74–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 78° | 79° | 83° | 77° | 75° | 76° | 83° | 75–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 77° | 80° | 83° | 79° | 76° | 78° | 84° | 76–84° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 77° | 79° | 82° | 79° | 76° | 79° | 83° | 76–83° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.