Was the forecast right for San Diego on Sat Sep 26?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Sat Sep 26 high anywhere from 76° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 81° against the SAN observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 3.1°. ECMWF ran 12° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-11 | — | 74° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 74–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 78° | 92° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-13 | 85° | 90° | 89° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 12d · 2026-09-14 | 84° | 83° | 92° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-15 | 78° | 81° | 82° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-16 | 78° | 81° | 89° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 9d · 2026-09-17 | 81° | 77° | 82° | 79° | 79° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-18 | 77° | 89° | 82° | 79° | 85° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 7d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 77° | 92° | 76° | 82° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-20 | 84° | 79° | 84° | 81° | 82° | 81° | 74° | 74–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-21 | 86° | 80° | 90° | 83° | 84° | 85° | 82° | 80–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-22 | 84° | 82° | 90° | 82° | 84° | 81° | 76° | 76–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-23 | 84° | 89° | 97° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 82° | 82–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-24 | 84° | 89° | 95° | 84° | 84° | 84° | 87° | 84–95° |
| 1d · 2026-09-25 | 84° | 89° | 93° | 85° | 84° | 85° | 87° | 84–93° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.