Was the forecast right for San Diego on Thu Sep 24?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Thu Sep 24 high anywhere from 77° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 77° against the SAN observations — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.4°. ECMWF ran 10° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-09 | — | 78° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 78–81° |
| 14d · 2026-09-10 | 80° | 77° | 80° | — | 78° | — | — | 77–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-11 | 81° | 74° | 77° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-12 | 78° | 77° | 90° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-13 | 78° | 80° | 78° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–80° |
| 10d · 2026-09-14 | 76° | 79° | 80° | — | 77° | — | — | 76–80° |
| 9d · 2026-09-15 | 79° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 80° | — | — | 79–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-16 | 78° | 84° | 81° | 80° | 77° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-17 | 81° | 80° | 80° | 79° | 75° | — | — | 75–81° |
| 6d · 2026-09-18 | 79° | 75° | 82° | 78° | 78° | 80° | 74° | 74–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-19 | 81° | 77° | 90° | 77° | 77° | 80° | 86° | 77–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-20 | 81° | 76° | 86° | 78° | 76° | 79° | 78° | 76–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-21 | 82° | 78° | 85° | 80° | 78° | 81° | 79° | 78–85° |
| 2d · 2026-09-22 | 81° | 78° | 83° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 78–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-23 | 81° | 78° | 87° | 80° | 78° | 80° | 81° | 78–87° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.