Was the forecast right for San Diego on Thu Sep 10?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 80° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 86° against the SAN observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.8°. ECMWF ran 11° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 71° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 71–86° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 78° | 85° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 88° | 80° | 87° | — | 88° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 81° | 88° | 81° | — | 86° | — | — | 81–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 82° | 88° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 81° | 95° | — | 84° | — | — | 79–95° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 76° | 74° | 75° | — | 79° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 78° | 74° | 99° | 77° | 76° | — | — | 74–99° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 91° | 77° | 96° | 77° | 79° | — | — | 77–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 89° | 95° | 80° | 80° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 90° | 90° | 94° | 89° | 81° | 86° | 89° | 81–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 90° | 90° | 95° | 88° | 80° | 88° | 95° | 80–95° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 91° | 88° | 96° | 89° | 79° | 86° | 95° | 79–96° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 91° | 89° | 96° | 86° | 78° | 86° | 90° | 78–96° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 91° | 89° | 96° | 88° | 79° | 87° | 92° | 79–96° |
| 0d · 2026-09-10 | 92° | 91° | 97° | 88° | 80° | 87° | 93° | 80–97° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.