Was the forecast right for San Diego on Wed Sep 9?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 83° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 94° against the SAN observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 11° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 78° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 72–78° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 73° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 73–86° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 87° | 90° | 89° | — | 83° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 94° | 89° | 88° | — | 89° | — | — | 88–94° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 85° | 88° | — | 86° | — | — | 83–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 84° | 86° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 85° | 87° | 99° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–99° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 76° | 77° | 77° | 75° | 83° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 76° | 101° | 78° | 81° | — | — | 76–101° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 91° | 86° | 96° | 82° | 83° | 92° | — | 82–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 91° | 94° | 98° | 85° | 84° | 83° | 78° | 78–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 94° | 91° | 100° | 90° | 84° | 89° | 89° | 84–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 94° | 90° | 101° | 94° | 86° | 87° | 96° | 86–101° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 95° | 90° | 102° | 93° | 85° | 95° | 100° | 85–102° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 96° | 92° | 103° | 91° | 86° | 95° | 101° | 86–103° |
| 0d · 2026-09-09 | 97° | 95° | 105° | 90° | 87° | 94° | 103° | 87–105° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.