Was the forecast right for San Diego on Wed Sep 9?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 76° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 94° against the SAN observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.6°. ECMWF ran 11° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 79° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 79–79° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 83° | 76° | 92° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 76° | 89° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–89° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 86° | 86° | — | 81° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 87° | 87° | — | 84° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 85° | 91° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 78° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 81° | — | — | 78–81° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 84° | 79° | 90° | 77° | 84° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 88° | 82° | 95° | 81° | 75° | — | — | 75–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 91° | 94° | 98° | 85° | 84° | 83° | 78° | 78–98° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 94° | 92° | 97° | 92° | 85° | 90° | 87° | 85–97° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 93° | 92° | 100° | 94° | 86° | 91° | 93° | 86–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 94° | 89° | 101° | 94° | 83° | 90° | 98° | 83–101° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 96° | 92° | 103° | 94° | 86° | 96° | 100° | 86–103° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 96° | 92° | 105° | 91° | 86° | 96° | 102° | 86–105° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.