Was the forecast right for San Diego on Tue Sep 8?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 76° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 94°. The day verified at 93° against the SAN observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. ECMWF ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 77° | 82° | 96° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–96° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 79° | 92° | — | 83° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 78° | 92° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 87° | 91° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 88° | 92° | — | 86° | — | — | 83–92° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 89° | 95° | 78° | 82° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 84° | 89° | 82° | 80° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 86° | 82° | 91° | 79° | 82° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 88° | 83° | 94° | 83° | 79° | 83° | 86° | 79–94° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 92° | 90° | 97° | 86° | 83° | 83° | 86° | 83–97° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 94° | 90° | 98° | 86° | 84° | 88° | 88° | 84–98° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 95° | 92° | 97° | 87° | 88° | 91° | 94° | 87–97° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 94° | 95° | 99° | 89° | 87° | 92° | 96° | 87–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 96° | 94° | 101° | 92° | 88° | 94° | 92° | 88–101° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.