Was the forecast right for San Diego on Sat Sep 5?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
11 days out, 4 models put San Diego's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 74° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 83° against the SAN observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 10° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-25 | 88° | 84° | 81° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-26 | 84° | 77° | 90° | — | 86° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-27 | 83° | 82° | 94° | 84° | 86° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 8d · 2026-08-28 | 87° | 91° | 92° | 82° | 82° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 7d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 91° | 88° | 78° | 84° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 6d · 2026-08-30 | 85° | 84° | 89° | 82° | 77° | 82° | 80° | 77–89° |
| 5d · 2026-08-31 | 85° | 82° | 90° | 83° | 78° | 76° | 86° | 76–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-01 | 86° | 85° | 90° | 80° | 78° | 86° | 82° | 78–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-02 | 85° | 84° | 92° | 84° | 79° | 85° | 88° | 79–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-03 | 86° | 85° | 90° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 86° | 81–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-04 | 86° | 84° | 93° | 85° | 82° | 83° | 88° | 82–93° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.