Was the forecast right for San Diego on Thu Sep 3?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
9 days out, 5 models put San Diego's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 76° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 77° against the SAN observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.4°. ECMWF ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 88° | 88° | 83° | 83° | 76° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 86° | 94° | 80° | 84° | — | — | 80–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 88° | 93° | 87° | 82° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 85° | 87° | 93° | 82° | 83° | 88° | 83° | 82–93° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 82° | 87° | 91° | 78° | 81° | 82° | 80° | 78–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 82° | 85° | 78° | 76° | 79° | 77° | 76–85° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 80° | 84° | 80° | 75° | 80° | 79° | 75–84° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 79° | 79° | 83° | 79° | 76° | 79° | 81° | 76–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 79° | 78° | 83° | 79° | 76° | 78° | 82° | 76–83° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.