Was the forecast right for San Diego on Wed Sep 2?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
8 days out, 5 models put San Diego's Wed Sep 2 high anywhere from 77° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 76° against the SAN observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. ECMWF ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 81° | 85° | 77° | 81° | — | — | 77–85° |
| 7d · 2026-08-26 | 88° | 82° | 90° | 78° | 83° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 87° | 88° | 84° | 76° | 82° | 83° | 76–88° |
| 5d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 85° | 89° | 83° | 82° | 84° | 83° | 82–89° |
| 4d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 86° | 91° | 79° | 83° | 82° | 82° | 79–91° |
| 3d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 83° | 88° | 81° | 79° | 82° | 81° | 79–88° |
| 2d · 2026-08-31 | 81° | 80° | 87° | 80° | 77° | 81° | 81° | 77–87° |
| 1d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 80° | 84° | 79° | 77° | 79° | 82° | 77–84° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.