Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Oct 22?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 53° to 56°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 67° against the SLC observations, with 0.64 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 2.3°. GFS ran 10° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | 61° | 61° | — | — | 72° | — | — | 61–72° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 54° | 54° | 56° | — | 53° | — | — | 53–56° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 40° | 46° | 48° | — | 62° | — | — | 40–62° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 41° | 53° | 51° | — | 76° | — | — | 41–76° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 43° | 54° | 50° | — | 63° | — | — | 43–63° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 48° | 51° | — | 51° | — | — | 48–51° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 53° | 59° | 52° | 67° | 71° | — | — | 52–71° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 60° | 52° | 68° | 54° | 54° | — | — | 52–68° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 61° | 71° | 61° | 75° | 67° | — | 61–75° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 66° | 69° | 67° | 73° | 76° | 71° | 60° | 60–76° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 66° | 70° | 71° | 73° | 75° | 73° | 67° | 66–75° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 64° | 70° | 71° | 72° | 74° | 73° | 71° | 64–74° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 64° | 69° | 71° | 72° | 74° | 73° | 72° | 64–74° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 64° | 70° | 72° | 67° | 77° | 74° | 73° | 64–77° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 64° | 70° | 69° | 72° | 77° | 73° | 72° | 64–77° |
| actual | 67° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.