Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Oct 21?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Oct 21 high anywhere from 48° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 72°. The day verified at 72° against the SLC observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-06 | 67° | 72° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 67–72° |
| 14d · 2026-10-07 | 60° | 53° | 48° | — | 74° | — | — | 48–74° |
| 13d · 2026-10-08 | 49° | 67° | 54° | — | 62° | — | — | 49–67° |
| 12d · 2026-10-09 | 49° | 51° | 55° | — | 67° | — | — | 49–67° |
| 11d · 2026-10-10 | 46° | 71° | 56° | — | 69° | — | — | 46–71° |
| 10d · 2026-10-11 | 42° | 56° | 49° | — | 62° | — | — | 42–62° |
| 9d · 2026-10-12 | — | 44° | 64° | 62° | 46° | — | — | 44–64° |
| 8d · 2026-10-13 | 50° | 58° | 51° | 63° | 67° | — | — | 50–67° |
| 7d · 2026-10-14 | 64° | 60° | 68° | 61° | 56° | 65° | — | 56–68° |
| 6d · 2026-10-15 | 67° | 63° | 71° | 69° | 68° | 70° | 62° | 62–71° |
| 5d · 2026-10-16 | 69° | 68° | 70° | 68° | 72° | 72° | 68° | 68–72° |
| 4d · 2026-10-17 | 69° | 71° | 72° | 74° | 74° | 71° | 70° | 69–74° |
| 3d · 2026-10-18 | 69° | 69° | 72° | 75° | 75° | 74° | 72° | 69–75° |
| 2d · 2026-10-19 | 67° | 70° | 73° | 74° | 76° | 73° | 72° | 67–76° |
| 1d · 2026-10-20 | 68° | 70° | 72° | 74° | 76° | 73° | 71° | 68–76° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.