Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Oct 16?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 55° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 67° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. GEM ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | 45° | 57° | — | — | 62° | — | — | 45–62° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 67° | 55° | 67° | — | 86° | — | — | 55–86° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 65° | 67° | 62° | — | 76° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 65° | 69° | 55° | — | 67° | — | — | 55–69° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 67° | 68° | 52° | — | 65° | — | — | 52–68° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 45° | 55° | 61° | — | 59° | — | — | 45–61° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 47° | 47° | 61° | 59° | 54° | — | — | 47–61° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 53° | 46° | 57° | 56° | 65° | — | — | 46–65° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 66° | 50° | 61° | 62° | 64° | 55° | — | 50–66° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 66° | 63° | 63° | 62° | 70° | 66° | 66° | 62–70° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 64° | 64° | 63° | 62° | 69° | 67° | 68° | 62–69° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 64° | 64° | 63° | 68° | 62° | 66° | 62–68° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 65° | 64° | 64° | 61° | 69° | 63° | 68° | 61–69° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 65° | 65° | 64° | 61° | 69° | 63° | 67° | 61–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 64° | 64° | 63° | 68° | 65° | 66° | 63–68° |
| actual | 67° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.