Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Oct 15?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 50° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 60°. The day verified at 63° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 65° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 65–77° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 50° | 81° | 63° | — | 68° | — | — | 50–81° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 64° | 53° | 60° | — | 84° | — | — | 53–84° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 62° | 64° | 59° | — | 72° | — | — | 59–72° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 65° | 61° | 52° | — | 66° | — | — | 52–66° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 64° | 63° | 57° | — | 63° | — | — | 57–64° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 47° | 50° | 57° | 57° | 52° | — | — | 47–57° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 41° | 44° | 60° | 55° | 50° | — | — | 41–60° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 56° | 50° | 56° | 55° | 61° | 59° | — | 50–61° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 60° | 51° | 57° | 55° | 65° | 55° | 51° | 51–65° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 61° | 57° | 62° | 56° | 62° | 58° | 62° | 56–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 60° | 60° | 63° | 57° | 64° | 65° | 64° | 57–65° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 61° | 59° | 63° | 66° | 60° | 65° | 59–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 62° | 61° | 59° | 58° | 68° | 59° | 65° | 58–68° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 62° | 60° | 60° | 57° | 68° | 60° | 65° | 57–68° |
| actual | 63° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.