Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Oct 14?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 61° to 78°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 54°. The day verified at 56° against the SLC observations, with 0.06 in of precipitation — showers.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | 68° | 78° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 68–78° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 72° | 61° | 62° | — | 78° | — | — | 61–78° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 57° | 82° | 59° | — | 83° | — | — | 57–83° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 59° | 57° | 53° | — | 80° | — | — | 53–80° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 59° | 72° | 56° | — | 65° | — | — | 56–72° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 59° | 52° | 60° | — | 60° | — | — | 52–60° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 64° | 61° | 52° | 48° | 59° | — | — | 48–64° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 65° | 52° | 57° | 59° | 64° | — | — | 52–65° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 59° | 54° | 56° | 59° | 67° | 61° | — | 54–67° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 56° | 56° | 55° | 55° | 57° | 59° | 53° | 53–59° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 52° | 57° | 48° | 50° | 59° | 52° | 50° | 48–59° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 51° | 51° | 52° | 46° | 54° | 52° | 56° | 46–56° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 49° | 54° | 56° | 54° | 55° | 57° | 53° | 49–57° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | — | 53° | 55° | 56° | 55° | 54° | 54° | 53–56° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 54° | 54° | 55° | 54° | 55° | 54° | 55° | 54–55° |
| actual | 56° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.