Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Tue Oct 13?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Tue Oct 13 high anywhere from 73° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 51°. The day verified at 51° against the SLC observations, with 0.23 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. GEM ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-28 | 65° | 76° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 65–76° |
| 14d · 2026-09-29 | 73° | 79° | 75° | — | 78° | — | — | 73–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-30 | 66° | 64° | 78° | — | 83° | — | — | 64–83° |
| 12d · 2026-10-01 | 56° | 75° | 73° | — | 86° | — | — | 56–86° |
| 11d · 2026-10-02 | 50° | 67° | 58° | — | 79° | — | — | 50–79° |
| 10d · 2026-10-03 | 54° | 70° | 60° | — | 60° | — | — | 54–70° |
| 9d · 2026-10-04 | 56° | 50° | 51° | 60° | 55° | — | — | 50–60° |
| 8d · 2026-10-05 | 60° | 56° | 54° | 49° | 64° | — | — | 49–64° |
| 7d · 2026-10-06 | 64° | 57° | 60° | 54° | 73° | 53° | — | 53–73° |
| 6d · 2026-10-07 | 60° | 59° | 64° | 54° | 75° | 62° | 66° | 54–75° |
| 5d · 2026-10-08 | 46° | 62° | 59° | 49° | 67° | 58° | 60° | 46–67° |
| 4d · 2026-10-09 | 49° | 60° | 55° | 55° | 66° | 56° | 55° | 49–66° |
| 3d · 2026-10-10 | 51° | 51° | 53° | 55° | 57° | 53° | 52° | 51–57° |
| 2d · 2026-10-11 | 50° | 50° | 52° | 50° | 51° | 51° | 51° | 50–52° |
| 1d · 2026-10-12 | — | 49° | 50° | 49° | 52° | 53° | 51° | 49–53° |
| actual | 51° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.