Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Oct 12?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Oct 12 high anywhere from 76° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 59°. The day verified at 58° against the SLC observations, with 0.38 in of precipitation — showers.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-27 | 76° | 80° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 76–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-28 | 81° | 76° | 82° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 13d · 2026-09-29 | 79° | 78° | 68° | — | 79° | — | — | 68–79° |
| 12d · 2026-09-30 | 57° | 67° | 78° | — | 76° | — | — | 57–78° |
| 11d · 2026-10-01 | 56° | 68° | 66° | — | 80° | — | — | 56–80° |
| 10d · 2026-10-02 | 54° | 68° | 55° | — | 78° | — | — | 54–78° |
| 9d · 2026-10-03 | 50° | 63° | 74° | 54° | 54° | — | — | 50–74° |
| 8d · 2026-10-04 | 58° | 58° | 54° | 57° | 69° | — | — | 54–69° |
| 7d · 2026-10-05 | 56° | 64° | 61° | 57° | 68° | 74° | — | 56–74° |
| 6d · 2026-10-06 | 55° | 59° | 60° | 52° | 72° | 62° | 66° | 52–72° |
| 5d · 2026-10-07 | 58° | 57° | 61° | 54° | 72° | 72° | 61° | 54–72° |
| 4d · 2026-10-08 | 55° | 65° | 66° | 60° | 68° | 65° | 66° | 55–68° |
| 3d · 2026-10-09 | 55° | 65° | 62° | 61° | 68° | 62° | 63° | 55–68° |
| 2d · 2026-10-10 | 57° | 60° | 61° | 61° | 62° | 61° | 57° | 57–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-11 | 56° | 60° | 57° | 59° | 62° | 59° | 57° | 56–62° |
| actual | 58° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.