Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Oct 4?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 53° to 75°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 86° against the SLC observations — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | 82° | 74° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 74–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 75° | 53° | 75° | — | 60° | — | — | 53–75° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 77° | 74° | 77° | — | 84° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 67° | 74° | 79° | — | 80° | — | — | 67–80° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 81° | 60° | 77° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–81° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 82° | 73° | 84° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 82° | 51° | 85° | 56° | 77° | — | — | 51–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 81° | 72° | 79° | 77° | 83° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 82° | 73° | 81° | 73° | 87° | 86° | — | 73–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 83° | 80° | 84° | 80° | 86° | 83° | 82° | 80–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 83° | 84° | 85° | 81° | 86° | 86° | 82° | 81–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 84° | 84° | 85° | 81° | 86° | 84° | 84° | 81–86° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 85° | 84° | 86° | 81° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 81–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 85° | 84° | 86° | 81° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 81–86° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 86° | 84° | 86° | 83° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 83–86° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.