Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Sep 28?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 59° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 70°. The day verified at 73° against the SLC observations, with 0.15 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | 70° | 76° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 76° | 84° | 85° | — | 59° | — | — | 59–85° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 62° | 85° | 77° | — | 76° | — | — | 62–85° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 64° | 63° | 83° | — | 64° | — | — | 63–83° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 71° | 76° | 72° | — | 83° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 78° | 84° | 71° | — | 80° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 69° | 74° | 66° | 76° | 67° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 71° | 74° | 73° | 74° | 78° | — | — | 71–78° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 73° | 70° | 72° | 68° | 74° | 79° | — | 68–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 67° | 68° | 71° | 76° | 74° | 81° | — | 67–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 65° | 60° | 67° | 72° | 70° | 68° | 66° | 60–72° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 71° | 72° | 75° | 72° | 76° | 72° | 74° | 71–76° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 68° | 74° | 74° | 72° | 78° | 75° | 75° | 68–78° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 68° | 72° | 72° | 64° | 77° | 69° | 70° | 64–77° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 68° | 68° | 67° | 74° | 76° | 73° | 70° | 67–76° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.