Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Sep 27?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Sep 27 high anywhere from 70° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 85° against the SLC observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.7°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-12 | 56° | 83° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 56–83° |
| 14d · 2026-09-13 | 80° | 70° | 88° | — | 88° | — | — | 70–88° |
| 13d · 2026-09-14 | 73° | 81° | 81° | — | 77° | — | — | 73–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-15 | 54° | 83° | 75° | — | 83° | — | — | 54–83° |
| 11d · 2026-09-16 | 75° | 74° | 84° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–84° |
| 10d · 2026-09-17 | 78° | 74° | 71° | — | 78° | — | — | 71–78° |
| 9d · 2026-09-18 | 75° | 84° | 78° | 77° | 74° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 8d · 2026-09-19 | 81° | 77° | 81° | 81° | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-20 | 83° | 84° | 76° | 78° | 87° | 82° | — | 76–87° |
| 6d · 2026-09-21 | 81° | 84° | 82° | 81° | 86° | 84° | 81° | 81–86° |
| 5d · 2026-09-22 | 80° | 84° | 81° | 81° | 85° | 83° | 81° | 80–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-23 | 76° | 79° | 80° | 81° | 83° | 82° | 79° | 76–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-24 | 80° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 82° | 83° | 80° | 80–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-25 | 81° | 82° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 82° | 81° | 81–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-26 | 82° | 81° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 82° | 82° | 81–83° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.